Will Dorian Impact Massachusetts?

Hurricane Dorian is whipping up on the Bahamas as we write this. Afterwards, where it goes is the subject of some debate.

After her dance with the Bahama Mama, Dorian looks to move towards Florida. However, forecasters are now calling for the storm to take a hook and move north up the coastline.

Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia would be next on the menu before the storm moves out to sea. The "moving out to sea" section of the forecast is the tricky part, with the New England implications.

Is Massachusetts going to get it?

We'll do our best to give you the If, When, Where and How Bad.

Please note, while freaking out about that one track with the Bourne landfall, that Bourne is about 1 of 100 places that the spaghetti calls a shot for. 99 other pastas take it out to sea nowhere near Massachusetts.

You don't need a direct hit from the hurricane to inflict massive damage to the coastline. However, every move to the east with this storm as it nears us gets us a little further from the truly dangerous stuff.

While the out to sea spaghetti forecasts have been moving closer to Cape Cod, even now we are only in an area of "10-30% chance of sustained >39 mph winds." The South Coast and Cape Cod are in the more ominous 40-50% range.

30% means that it is more than twice as likely that we don't get tropical storm force winds. That's the good news.

The bad news is that previous forecasts didn't even give it that much of a chance over the weekend. The trend is becoming more Massachusettsish.

Just made up a word there...

While the trend is not aiming towards a direct hit, it is moving us closer to some interaction with this powerful storm. That can make for a very bad scene.

Dorian is presently forecast to be in our area later Friday and Saturday.

We will not be getting 185 mph, Category 5 Dorian. Presently, we are not forecasted to have a direct hit from a Category 1 version of Dorian. Even a weakened Tropical Storm Dorian most likely will pass south and east of us.

Nothing is set in stone, however.

We do all of this warning-you stuff just to make money keep you informed in case the forecast takes a turn for the worse.

New England is unique with hurricanes in that we might look doomed as the storm approaches, but then it does a turn to the east and we instead get golfing weather.

This could break that way. If someone offered a blood money bet on this or any storm, bet on that.

Just keep part of your brain open to the possibility of something like this:

We'll be back later in the week with more updates. Stay dry.