Fringe Effects Possible From Tropical Storm/Hurricane Chris

Hurricane season is just starting to warm up, and two systems are in play in the more tropical waters to our south.

Beryl is officially a Tropical Rainstorm, although it was a Tropical Storm recently and could become one again later in the week. It will move through the Lesser Antilles, then take aim at Hispaniola. If riots in Haiti and the mountains of of the island in general don't put an end to the storm, it could regenerate into a Tropical Storm as it nears the Bahamas.

Tracks are difficult to predict a week in advance, but the tracks that I see then send it out to sea in the general direction of Bermuda. No credible source takes it anywhere near New England, but we'll firm that up for you later in the week.

Tropical Storm Chris, currently off of the Carolinas, is a bit closer to us. Her winds are around 60 MPH. It is in a good area for strengthening and could be a hurricane as soon as the 11 AM tropical update from the National Weather Service.

Most forecast models fire it out to sea, far SE of Nantucket. There was a forecast track that took it over Cape Cod, but the folks who put that one out have since then fallen in line with the other forecast models. If it whups up on anyone, it will be Atlantic Canada.

New England could still get a taste of it. Large surf and rip currents should begin to hit the South Coast, Cape Cod and the Islands by Wednesday and Thursday. A lesser possibility of slow-rolling, deep-sea swells hitting the Outer Cape and the South Shore (from Duxbury north) would come into play for the weekend.

Again, these storms are not predicted to get anywhere near New England. No rain is coming to us from this. We just get the rough surf fringe effects. 

July hurricanes are relatively rare in New England, as our waters are still cold and hurricanes rely on warm ocean waters. We are actually where July tropical storms become extratropical.

We have had July tropical systems of note in 1850, a legit Category 1 system in 1916, fading Hurricane Cindy (Wareham/Bourne-ish looking landfall) in 1959, Tropical Storm Bertha in 1996, TS Danny's fringe in 1997, and 2006's version for TS Beryl (Nantucket landfall with 10 foot waves). Beryl, which was weak enough that they didn't retire the name, was SE Massacusetts' last tropical system landfall.

Be mindful of the surf if you are heading to the beaches later this week. Otherwise, enjoy what looks to be a spectacular run of beach weather.