Monday, September 17, 2018

Weakened Florence Coming Tuesday



Florence was the scourge of the Atlantic for a while, and she gave the Carolinas a whuppin' for several days.

Now, Hurricane Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Tropical Rainstorm Florence is over Kentucky and about to be heading back out to sea.

She will to hook right (east), and will eventually move over Massachusetts on Tuesday.

That puts the Bay State in a wet position, as 2-4 inches of windswept rain will fall on us. Flo should have sustained winds of around 25 mph (highest on the Cape), well below tropical storm strength.

The heaviest rain will be to the north of us, with only FOX among our local broadcasters putting SE Massachusetts into the "possibly 4 inches" area.

She should arrive here by Tuesday morning, and will exit Massachusetts (a Duxbury-Hull area looks to be her center's last American home, unless she clips the outer Cape) late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

She will be moving due east at that point, and should intensify a bit offshore, perhaps getting winds of 50 mph as she heads to open ocean.

This intensification will allow her to send us a parting gift... big waves. No real waves should come from the rainstorm herself, as winds Tuesday have a S/SW look to them.

That wind will shift to the East after Flo moves away, and with a strengthening storm due East of us, look for some big waves to roll back towards us.

Duxbury Beach, for instance, should have waves of about a foot or two today. They will increase to 4 feet on Wednesday and 5 feet on Thursday.

Tides will be astronomically low to an extent (evening tides should be about 10 feet), so the waves won't be tearing down houses or anything,  but it should make for good viewing. Big, slow rollers should be the norm for east-facing beaches.

We'll have a photographer on the South Shore at least once during this period. We had South Coast and Cape Cod surf checks as Florence approached, so it is only fair to do a South Shore Surf Check as she departs.



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